The start of the 2021-22 Ligue 1 football season has come upon us fast, with Lille looking to replicate their incredible success from last time out in putting an end to Paris Saint-Germain’s most recent run of titles at just three successive championships.
It has been all change at the helm in Lille, although Jocelyn Gourvennec began his reign perfectly with victory over PSG in the Trophee des Champions. So does our prediction model, courtesy of the AI team at Stats Perform, give Les Dogues hope of back-to-back titles or will it be PSG, Lyon, Monaco or someone else’s turn for success? Watch this video to find out what our pre season prediction says.
If you want to read more ahead of the Ligue 1 season, then check our preview on The Analyst – – with a focus on the great young talent in the French top flight.
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A brief explanation of our league prediction model
– The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) given each team’s attacking and defensive quality.
– The team’s attacking and defensive qualities are based on four years of historic results, with more weighting given to their most recent results.
– The model will take into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes against and reward them accordingly. For example, scoring against Manchester City is worth more than scoring vs. Newcastle.
– We can simulate the upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution with the two teams’ attacking and defending qualities as inputs.
– Finally, we simulate the outcome of the season 10,000 times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.
The teams competing in Ligue 1 in the 2021-22 season:
Angers, Bordeaux, Brest, Clermont, Lens, Lille, Lorient, Lyon, Marseille, Metz, Monaco, Montpellier, Nantes, Nice, Paris Saint-Germain, Reims, Rennes, Saint-Etienne, Strasbourg, Troyes
#football #ligue1 #psg #lille #prediction #ai #sport
TRANSCRIPTION OF VIDEO
The start of the 2021/2022 Ligue 1 season has come upon us fast with Lille hoping to replicate their success from last campaign – when they ended Paris Saint-Germain most recent run of titles at just three successive championships.
But following a change in management at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, does our predictor model give them hope of achieving back-to-back success?
Well…the short answer is no. Our model, powered by the AI Teams at Stats Perform, are giving Paris Saint-Germain a 79.5% chance of winning the Ligue 1 title and handing Mauricio Pochettino his first league success as a manager.
So how do we come to this conclusion?
Well our model estimates the probability of each match outcome, based on each team’s attacking and defensive quality – which is based on four years worth of historic results, with more weighting given to their most recent results and also taking into account the quality of opponent.
From there, our super computer takes over simulating the outcomes over and over again, 10, 000 times in fact in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.
So after all of that – our model is pointing to PSG being crowned champions, equalling Saint Etienne’s record of 10 Ligue 1 titles, with Lille the most likely side to finish second with a 42% chance.
We do also give some hope of success to fans of Lyon and Monaco, but that’s about it, and perhaps it isn’t too much of a surprise. Of the last 20 Ligue 1 titles, these four clubs have shared 18 of them.
Well, if you that’s whetted your appetite then you can read more ahead of the new campaign right now by visiting TheAnalyst.com – home of data-driven storytelling.
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They will win all games.
Not a single draw not a single loss.
114 points.